Note: This is an election that I’ve been anticipating for months. The rollercoaster polling, the sizable number of major parties (spanning the entire political spectrum, no less), the photo finish… it’s a political junkie’s dream!
The Parties
There are ten political parties of note contesting Norway’s upcoming parliamentary election on September 8.
Ap (Arbeiderpartiet/Labour Party): A center-left social democratic party led by incumbent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. The largest party in Norway since 1927 (almost a century!).
H (Høyre/Conservative Party): A center-right liberal-conservative party led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. One of the historical opposition parties to the Labour Party.
Sp (Senterpartiet/Centre Party): A Nordic agrarian party supporting protectionist economic policies and decentralization. Led by former Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, the party, which historically opposed Labour-led coalitions, is now a member of the unofficial “Red Bloc" (the country’s center-left coalition, which is opposed by the center-right “Blue Bloc”).
FrP (Fremskrittspartiet/Progress Party): A rightwing populist party led by Sylvi Listhaug. Founded in 1973 as an anti-tax protest movement, the party has slowly become one of the country’s dominant political forces. Part of the “Blue Bloc.” The furthest right of the major parties.
SV (Sosialistisk Venstreparti/Socialist Left Party): An ecosocialist and republican party led by Kirsti Bergstø. Part of the “Red Bloc.”
R (Rødt/Red Party): A Marxist and republican party led by Marie Sneve Martinussen. Part of the “Red Bloc.” The furthest left of the major parties.
V (Venstre/Liberal Party): A social liberal and pro-European integration party led by Guri Melby. Part of the “Blue Bloc.” The oldest party in Norway.
MDG (Miljøpartiet De Grønne/Green Party): A center-left green and pro-European integration party led by Arild Hermstad. Unofficially part of the “Red Bloc.”
KrF (Kristelig Folkeparti/Christian Democratic Party): A center-right Christian democratic party led by Dag Inge Ulstein. Part of the “Blue Bloc.”
PF (Pasientfokus/Patient Focus): A single-issue party focused on hospital expansion in the town of Alta. Led by Irene Ojala, the party won one seat in the 2021 parliamentary election. Not part of either bloc.
The Background
In the 2021 parliamentary election, the Labour Party won 48 seats, the Conservative Party won 36 seats, the Centre Party won 28 seats, the Progress Party won 21 seats, the Socialist Left party won 13 seats, the Red Party won 8 seats, the Liberal Party won 8 seats, the Green Party won 3 seats, the Christian Democratic Party won 3 seats, and Patient Focus won 1 seat.
Solberg’s then-incumbent government of the Conservatives, the Liberals, and the Christian Democrats (and, until 2020, the Progress Party) lost its majority, allowing Labour leader Støre an attempt at forming a government.
After negotiations between Labour, the Centre Party, and the Socialist Left Party, which would have afforded Støre a majority of 89 seats, failed due to the Socialist Left Party’s objections over climate and welfare policy, Støre formed a minority government between Labour and the Centre Party, with passive support (when necessary) from the Socialist Left Party.
Støre’s government implemented stricter hiring standards, more affordable renewable energy prices, decentralization of the controversial Viken County, a reduction in price and expansion of service for the country’s ferry network, stricter COVID-19 policies, bolder climate goals, greater funding for artificial intelligence, and more spending on defense. The Prime Minister announced that Norway would recognize Palestine as an independent country, and his government contributed aid to Ukraine. He also apologized to Norway’s Sami and queer communities for historical oppression.
The Støre government faced a high number of scandals, ranging from sexual harassment allegations against a Cabinet minister to corruption to insider trading to plagiarism.
In early 2025, after the Labour Party announced its intention to adopt European Union (EU) energy directives in light of the threat of a trade war from U.S. President Donald Trump, the Centre Party left the government coalition. [Note: Norway is not a member of the EU but collaborates closely with the organization.]
With less than a year before the next election, Støre opted to continue on with just his Labour Party in government.
The Campaign
As the election year began, Støre’s chances at a second term looked slim. In the polls, the Progress Party led the pack with 24%, followed by the Conservatives with 22% and Labour with 19%. The “Blue Bloc” parties were polling at a combined 54%, with the “Red Bloc” parties lagging behind at a combined 42%. Political pundits began debating whether Solberg or Listhaug would be the country’s next prime minister.
The departure of the Centre Party from the government, however, provided Støre and Labour with just the opening they needed. Alone in government, the center-left party could work to implement its own agenda, appeasing its voting base in a way that it couldn’t when constantly compromising with the Centre Party.
But the real opening came from the ministerial posts opened up by the Centre Party’s departure. To replace Vedum at the Ministry of Finance, Støre selected Jens Stoltenberg, who served as Norway’s prime minister from 2000 to 2001 and again from 2005 to 2013. Fresh off his stent as secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Stoltenberg was a breathe of fresh air for a party that had been gasping and flailing around for months.
With his long list of credentials on both the domestic and international stage, Stoltenberg’s arrival ushered in a significant vibe shift in the election campaign. By early February, Labour was once again leading in the polls, taking 25% to the Progress Party’s 24% and the Conservative Party’s 18%.
By April, as the country began to shift into election mode, Labour had grown to 28% in the polls, followed by the Progress Party and the Conservatives with 20% each. The “Red Bloc,” with 49%, had reclaimed the lead from the “Blue Bloc,” with 47%.
Norway uses proportional representation in nineteen constituencies to elect 150 of its representatives to the Storting (parliament). Within each constituency, seats are distributed proportionally based on a party’s share of the vote. An additional 19 seats are given out as “leveling seats,” meaning that they are used to ensure that a party that performed well nationwide but didn’t perform well enough to win many seats in individual constituencies still receives a semi-propositional number of seats overall. To access leveling seats, however, a party must receive at least 4% of the vote nationwide.
The Labour Party is campaigning on fixed electricity prices, a reduction in health service waiting times, education reform (including a reduction in screen time), reducing crime and traffic in urban areas, lowering the cost of living, increasing wages, combating poverty and inequality, modernizing the public sector economy, increasing energy security, and continuing to strengthen defense alliances.
The Conservative Party is campaigning on job creation, increasing private ownership, reducing bureaucracy, education reform, more diversity in the social health economy, modernizing the economy, a reduction in crime, a better integration system for migrants and refugees, and a robust military.
The Centre Party is campaigning on lower taxes for middle/lower incomes and small businesses, more funding for rural police departments, tax credits to encourage people to live in the country’s northern region, opposition to drug decriminalization, allowing police to be armed, keeping rural health clinics open and opposing private hospital expansion, eliminating standardized tests in elementary schools, establishing free school lunches, a reduction in the climate tax, greatly increasing defense spending, and cutting back on economic cooperation with the European Union.
The Progress Party is campaigning on law and order, net zero immigration from “high-risk areas,” prioritization of Christian refugees, a reform of citizenship and residency laws, more individualized education, stronger supports for the elderly, job creation, and more defense spending.
The Socialist Left Party is campaigning on reducing poverty, protecting and expanding welfare benefits, increasing taxes on the rich, reducing Norway’s oil production and exportation, increasing child benefits, reducing climate emissions and accelerating the transition to renewables, reducing healthcare co-pays, decriminalizing drug use, including dental services in the national health service, increasing the annual refugee quota, and continuing military and humanitarian support for Ukraine.
The Red Party is campaigning on increasing taxes on the rich, nationalization of the country’s largest banks through a buy-out program, democratizing the management of hospitals, including dental services in the national health service, abolishing homework, legalizing marijuana under a state monopoly, increasing the annual refugee quota, loosening asylum restrictions, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, withdrawing Norway from NATO, boycotting Israel and expanding aid to Palestinians, continuing support for Ukraine but emphasizing humanitarian support, enacting rent control in major cities, and allowing for a third (nonbinary) gender in passports.
The Liberal Party is campaigning on reducing income and labor taxes, increasing taxes on property and consumption taxes, abolishing the wealth tax on liquid assets, reducing the size of the public sector through privatization, allowing for greater choice between public and private hospitals, legalizing marijuana and surrogacy, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, reducing sick pay, giving teachers more control over their classrooms, loosening restrictions on sex work, joining the EU, increasing foreign aid, sanctioning Israel, building closer ties with Taiwan, lowering the voting age, and holding a referendum on the monarchy.
The Green Party is campaigning on expanding public transit, strengthening protections for nature and biodiversity, simplifying regulations for migrant workers, expanding funding for bilingual programming and resources, strengthening multicultural education in schools, continuing the child benefit program, emboldening efforts against discrimination, lowering language requirements for citizenship, defending free speech, introducing a stronger focus on global climate resilience and humanitarian aid, and expanding services for victims of domestic violence.
The Christian Democratic Party is campaigning on opposition to abortion and euthanasia, opposition to same-sex marriage and adoption rights, support for NATO and economic cooperation with the EU, support for Israel and Ukraine, increasing Norway’s foreign and humanitarian aid, increasing support and quotas for refugees, more funding for public transit, an end to oil and gas exploration, and the creation of a robust climate plan.
Irene Ojala, Patient Focus’s leader and singular representative in the Storting, is campaigning (once again) on the construction of a hospital in Alta, honing in on the lack of a maternity ward as a matter of women’s rights.
Heading into the final stretch of the campaign, the two respective blocs are neck and neck. The Labour Party seems almost certain to continue its status as the country’s largest party, with the Progress Party returning to second place for the first time since 2009.
With Labour having opened a polling lead (26%) over the Progress Party (22%) and the Conservatives (15%), the real deciding factor in this election will be the performance of the smaller parties.
For months, the Liberals, the Greens, and the Christian Democrats have all hovered right around the 4% threshold. In 2021, both the Greens and the Christian Democrats failed to cross this threshold, meaning that they each only received 3 seats from various constituencies. This time, there appears to be some strategic voting, at least on the behalf of would-be Labour voters, who are instead supporting the Greens to ensure the smallest “Red Bloc” party crosses the threshold.
If one or both of the Liberals and the Christian Democrats fail to enter the Storting, the chances of Støre continuing as prime minister will greatly increase. But if both of the “Blue Bloc” parties cross the 4% threshold, and especially if this happens alongside the Greens failing to enter, the “Blue Bloc” parties will likely claim a majority.
The latest Verien poll found the following result: Labour with 29%, the Progress Party with 19%, the Conservatives with 16%, the Centre Party with 6%, the Socialist Left Party with 6%, the Red Party with 6%, the Greens with 6%, the Christian Democrats with 5%, and the Liberals with 3%. This result would translate into 94 seats for the “Red Bloc” and 75 seats for the “Blue Bloc.”
This election is really heading toward a photo finish, though Støre seems to have an ever-so-slight lead going into the final days of the race. But even if the “Red Bloc” wins a majority, Støre’s second term will depend on his success in negotiating some sort of governing arrangement and shared policy manifesto between Labour, the Red Party, the Centre Party, the Socialist Left Party, and the Greens, which is certainly no small task.